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Ecosystem services contribute to jobs, economic growth, health, and human well-being. Although we interact with ecosystems and ecosystem services every day, their linkage to climate change can be elusive because they are influenced by so many additional entangled factors. 187 Ecosystem perturbations driven by climate change have direct human impacts, including reduced water supply and quality, the loss of iconic species and landscapes, distorted rhythms of nature, and the potential for extreme events to overwhelm the regulating services of ecosystems. Even with these well-documented ecosystem impacts, it is often difficult to quantify human vulnerability that results from shifts in ecosystem processes and services. For example, although it is more straightforward to predict how precipitation will change water flow, it is much harder to pinpoint which farms, cities, and habitats will be at risk of running out of water, and even more difficult to say how people will be affected by the loss of a favorite fishing spot or a wildflower that no longer blooms in the region. A better understanding of how a range of ecosystem responses affects people – from altered water flows to the loss of wildflowers – will help to inform the management of ecosystems in a way that promotes resilience to climate change.

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Key Message 1: Water

Climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate water flows.

Process for Developing Key Messages:

The key messages and supporting chapter text summarize extensive evidence documented in the Ecosystems Technical Input Report, . This foundational report evolved from a technical workshop held at the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation in Palo Alto, CA, in January 2012 and attended by approximately 65 scientists. Technical inputs (127) on a wide range of topics related to ecosystems were also received and reviewed as part of the Federal Register Notice solicitation for public input.

Description of evidence base

The author team digested the contents of more than 125 technical input reports on a wide array of topics to arrive at this key message. The foundational Technical Input Report was the primary source used.

Studies have shown that increasing precipitation is already resulting in declining water quality in many regions of the country, particularly by increasing nitrogen loading. This is because the increases in flow can pick up and carry greater loads of nutrients like nitrogen to rivers.

One model for the Mississippi River Basin, based on a doubling of CO, projects that increasing discharge and nitrogen loading will lead to larger algal blooms in the Gulf of Mexico and a larger dead zone. The Gulf of Mexico is the recipient system for the Mississippi Basin, receiving all of the nitrogen that is carried downriver but not removed by river processes, wetlands, or other ecosystems.

Several models project that declining streamflow, due to the combined effects of climate change and water withdrawals, will cause local extinctions of fish and other aquatic organisms, particularly trout in the interior western U.S. (composite of 10 models, A1B scenario). The trout study is one of the few studies of impacts on fish that uses an emissions scenario and a combination of climate models. The researchers studied four different trout species. Although there were variations among species, their overall conclusion was robust across species for the composite model.

Water quality can also be negatively affected by increasing temperatures. There is widespread evidence that warmer lakes can promote the growth of harmful algal blooms, which produce toxins.

New information and remaining uncertainties

Recent research has improved understanding of the relative importance of the effects of climate and human actions (for example, fertilization) on nitrogen losses from watersheds, and how the interactions between climate and human actions (for example, water withdrawals) will affect fish populations in the west. However, few studies have projected the impacts of future climate change on water quality. Given the tight link between river discharge and pollutants, only areas of the U.S. that are projected to see increases in precipitation will see increases in pollutant transport to rivers. It is also important to note that pollutant loading – for example, nitrogen fertilizer use – is often more important as a driver of water pollution than climate.

Assessment of confidence based on evidence

Given the evidence base and uncertainties, there is confidence that climate change impacts on ecosystems reduce their ability to improve water quality and regulate water flows.

It is well established that precipitation and associated river discharge are major drivers of water pollution in the form of excess nutrients, sediment, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC) transport into rivers. Increases in precipitation in many regions of the country are therefore contributing to declines in water quality in those areas. However, those areas of the country that will see reduced precipitation may experience water-quality improvement; thus, any lack of agreement on future water-quality impacts of climate change may be due to locational differences.

Very High

Strong evidence (established theory, multiple sources, consistent results, well documented and accepted methods, etc.), high consensus

High

Moderate evidence (several sources, some consistency, methods vary and/or documentation limited, etc.), medium consensus

Medium

Suggestive evidence (a few sources, limited consistency, models incomplete, methods emerging, etc.), competing schools of thought

Low

Inconclusive evidence (limited sources, extrapolations, inconsistent findings, poor documentation and/or methods not tested, etc.), disagreement or lack of opinions among experts

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Climate-driven factors that control water availability and quality are moderated by ecosystems. Land-based ecosystems regulate the water cycle and are the source of sediment and other materials that make their way to aquatic ecosystems (streams, rivers, lakes, estuaries, oceans, groundwater). Aquatic ecosystems provide the critically important services of storing water, regulating water quality, supporting fisheries, providing recreation, and carrying water and materials downstream (Ch. 25: Nike Free 50 2014 Womens Shoes Cool Grey / Jade / Pink 5 clearance find great buy cheap release dates jH5cQK
). Humans utilize, on average, the equivalent of more than 40% of renewable supplies of freshwater in more than 25% of all U.S. watersheds. 1 Freshwater withdrawals are even higher in the arid Southwest, where the equivalent of 76% of all renewable freshwater is appropriated by people. adidas Neo Womens Cloudfoam Xpression Casual Sneaker Vapor Blue/Blue Zest White Cheapest cheap online pDFNO
In that region, climate change has likely decreased and altered the timing of streamflow due to reduced snowpack and lower precipitation in spring, although the precipitation trends are weak due to large year-to-year variability, as well as geographic variation in the patterns (Ch. 3: Water ; Ch. 20: Southwest ). collections sale online Lakai Mens Flaco Skateboarding Shoe Midnight Canvas lowest price clearance finishline outlet release dates cheap 2014 RB32yZ17L
Depriving ecosystems of water reduces their ability to provide water to people as well as for aquatic plant and animal habitat (see Figure 8.1) .

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Christopher Edley Jr.

Obama’s senior adviser and former law professor; came up with idea for a grassroots movement to build on the campaign.

Mitch Kapor

Silicon Valley legend who teamed up with Edley. Generated support from the tech world; fought for independence from DNC.

Mark Alexander

Campaign adviser tapped to co-chair project. His “Vulcan mind meld”with Kapor generated a “huge” vision for Movement 2.0.

PAUL SAKUMA/AP IMAGES; TOM HERDE/THE BOSTON GLOBE/GETTY; COURTESY OF CBS

“As the primary season wound down, it struck me that the campaign’s broad-based engagement via the internet could evolve into a powerful tool to shape progressive politics at the national, state, and local levels,” Edley recalls. “One goal would be to support an Obama presidency. But the agenda would be far broader.”

After discussing his idea with his wife, Maria Echaveste, who had served as White House deputy chief of staff under Bill Clinton, Edley turned to his friend Kapor, a digital pioneer and progressive activist who was widely seen as a folk hero of the computer revolution. “I knew that Mitch would be an indispensable partner to judge the merits of the general idea and help figure out some details,” Edley says. “I also realized, quite quickly, that Mitch had amazing contacts in that world whom we could enlist for the project.”

Opening the July brainstorming session, Edley framed the stakes sharply, according to notes he prepared for the meeting and a summary he wrote afterward. “On the morning of November 5,” he told the assembled tech leaders, “imagine saying to millions of donors, new voters, volunteers: ‘Thanks for everything; so long.’” Instead, he urged, “Imagine a way to transfer/transmute all of that involvement into a new mechanism or set of instrumentalities through which people can feel a heightened and more powerful kind of civic engagement with each other and with Obama and other leaders. And vice versa.”

Edley echoed what many progressives were beginning to believe was possible with a President Obama: “There is a rare opportunity to have a citizen movement heading in the same progressive direction as an incumbent president.” According to his notes, the Silicon Valley luminaries on the call agreed. “Most felt it would be an unacceptable loss not to take advantage of the rare alignment of an incumbent President with a progressive agenda, and an online constituency of donors and supporters who can press for change against the inevitable upsurge of entrenched special interests which will resist it.”

As we now know, that grand vision for a postcampaign movement never came to fruition. Instead of mobilizing his unprecedented grassroots machine to pressure obstructionist lawmakers, support state and local candidates who shared his vision, and counter the Tea Party, Obama mothballed his campaign operation, bottling it up inside the Democratic National Committee . It was the seminal mistake of his presidency—one that set the tone for the next eight years of dashed hopes, and helped pave the way for Donald Trump to harness the pent-up demand for change Obama had unleashed.

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